Climate Change Politics: A Landscape Transformed
CLIMATE CHANGE POLITICS: A LANDSCAPE TRANSFORMED
SPEECH BY EILEEN CLAUSSEN, PRESIDENT, PEW CENTER ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
XERISCAPE COUNCIL OF NEW MEXICO, MARCH 9, 2007
ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO
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It is wonderful to be here in Albuquerque. I am honored to be a part of this conference, and to kick off Session III of these proceedings.
And what a journey you have been on. Your agenda shows that you have moved from the Desert Dryland of Session I through the Middle Ground of Session II . . . and today you have reached Session III: Oasis. I am just glad this Convention Center has ample parking for all of your camels.
Your journey reminds me of an old New Yorker cartoon. It shows a caravan in the desert with the camels piled high. A child in the group asks his mother the age-old question: “Are we there yet?” And the irritated mother replies: “Of course not, we’re nomads!”
So let me begin by paying tribute to the Xeriscape Council of New Mexico for bringing all of us—all of you—together. The Council understands that, when it comes to issues of how we use water and how we interact with the natural environment, we simply cannot continue blindly on our current course. We cannot keep treating the environment as an instrument for meeting our every whim and need. Or, at least, we cannot do this and expect our actions not to have repercussions, some of them quite severe.
I am here this morning, of course, to talk about climate change. And, given the Council’s interest in water issues, I want to talk a little bit about the relationship between climate change and water supplies. But, mostly, I want to talk about politics.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking: Oh, great. Someone is here from Washington to talk about politics. As if we don’t get enough politics in the news already.
But what I want to talk about is the politics of climate change—and how the political landscape in this country is changing in favor of stronger action to protect the climate. And it is changing for the same reason that events such as this conference are attracting more and more participants. Because people recognize that we have some very serious environmental problems on our hands—and because people see that there are solutions.
Of course, I am talking about people like you. And I am also talking about people like New Mexico’s governor, Bill Richardson.
Just last week, as I am sure you know, Governor Richardson joined with the chief executives of four other western states in a bold agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change. I’ll talk more about this later, but for now I merely want to alert you to the fact that solutions to climate change are sprouting up right here in your own backyard. New Mexico and its neighbors, in fact, are at the vanguard in showcasing the new politics of climate change that I want to talk about today.
But let me start with a few words about water. Earlier this year, a United Nations panel called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a highly anticipated report on the current science of climate change. This report represents the combined efforts of hundreds of top scientists from around the world. And it received a great deal of attention in the media—chiefly, for confirming once and for all that sea level and global temperatures both increased at an accelerating pace during the 20th century.
Also newsworthy was the fact that the IPCC expressed a much higher level of confidence than in past reports (a greater than 90-percent certainty, in fact) that the changes we are seeing are the result of human actions. The primary culprit, of course, is emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.
But there was other news in the IPCC report as well—and a lot of it had to do with water. For example, the report confirmed that mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both the northern and southern hemispheres. It also found that more intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.
And that just covers what has happened to date. The IPCC also issued projections for the decades ahead. And, again, the news is not good. Global temperatures, according to the report, will rise by 3.2 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, and sea levels will rise one-half to two feet. In addition, there is a 90-percent or greater chance that the world will see more hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events. And it is likely that we will see more droughts as well.
There it is: the dreaded D-word. The likelihood of more droughts is an obvious concern for people across the Southwest. The American Meteorological Society held a briefing on the IPCC report the other week in Washington, and Dr. Richard Seager of Columbia University made some very sobering points.
He said the report essentially confirms that the southwestern United States began a transition to a drier climate at the end of the 20th century, and that a new, drier climate is, in fact, well established as the 21st century gets under way. According to state-of-the-art models, conditions approximating a perpetual 1950s-style drought are likely to become the new climate of the Southwest in the decades to come.
In other words: If you want to keep a garden in New Mexico, and if you’re not into xeriscaping now, there is a 90-percent or greater chance you will be soon. There is no doubt about it: the changing climate will have serious implications for the Southwest. It will affect development, the allocation of water resources, cross-border relations with Mexico, everything.
And that’s just the forecast for the Southwest. Looking more broadly, the most recent IPCC report confirms beyond any reasonable doubt that climate change is a real problem, that it is caused in large part by human activity, and that it will accelerate in the years to come. If there is any silver lining in the contents of this report, it is this: the IPCC has provided the latest in a long line of scientific studies and pronouncements that have helped to change the political landscape on this issue in favor of solutions. And that is what I would like to talk about during the remainder of my remarks.
In his January State of the Union address, President Bush called global climate change a “serious challenge.” And, while his answers to the challenge fall far short of doing what’s needed, it is a remarkable rhetorical (and political) u-turn for this White House to even acknowledge that this is a challenge, let alone a serious one.
The reason for the u-turn can be found in part, as I said, in the increasing scientific certainty about climate change. Every month, it seems, the scientific case for action has become stronger—to the point that no responsible, thinking person can any longer deny that this is a real problem.
But science is not the only force that has compelled this White House and others to see that it is in their political interest to go public with their concern about this challenge. Equally important, I believe, is the fact that this Administration has become politically isolated on this issue, as governors and congressional leaders have stepped up and not only acknowledged the challenge but tried to shape real solutions.
The announcement last week by the five Western governors is a perfect example of this. People are not happy about the lack of leadership on this issue from Washington, and they’re setting out to fill the void.
Under the western governors’ agreement, New Mexico would join with Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington to set a regional target for greenhouse gas emissions. And, by August 2008, the states will establish a market-based system to enable companies and industries to meet the target as cost-effectively as possible. These five states combined emit more carbon dioxide than Canada, while accounting for more than 11 percent of total U.S. emissions. So this is a significant achievement.
New Mexico also is one of 12 U.S. states that have adopted their own statewide targets for capping and, ultimately, reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. And New Mexico’s are among the most ambitious targets out there--emissions will reach 2000 levels by 2012, they will be 10 percent below 2000 levels by 2020, and 75 percent below 2000 levels by 2050.
In December, Governor Richardson signed an executive order to help the state reach its targets. Among the steps he approved were the creation of a greenhouse gas registry, advances in technology to capture and store carbon emissions from power plants, and the promotion of renewable fuels.
New Mexico is the first major coal, oil and gas-producing state to set targets like these. New Mexico also is working with its neighbors in Arizona on a plan called the Southwest Climate Change Initiative. The goal: to pursue collaborative opportunities to reduce emissions.
The residents of this state deserve to be proud of all of the forward-looking things that are happening right here to address climate change. But New Mexico is not alone among the states. Over the past several years, lawmakers from coast to coast have been embracing new programs and policies to reduce their states’ greenhouse gas emissions.
California, like New Mexico, established an ambitious greenhouse gas emissions target—and California has gone the next step and passed legislation, with real enforcement, to give the targets the force of law. California also has taken steps to begin regulating carbon dioxide emissions from cars and trucks (a policy that 10 other states are poised to follow if it survives a legal challenge from the automakers). If the courts uphold it, California’s new standard for vehicles will reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions in the state by 30 million tons by 2020.
Many, many states are taking steps to rein in their emissions. For example, 22 states, including large emitters like Texas and California, have required that electric utilities generate a specified amount of electricity from renewable sources. Twenty-eight states have climate action plans.
And other states are working across their borders in the same spirit as New Mexico and its western neighbors. Seven Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states have signed their own regional initiative. Known as RGGI, it is aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from power plants in the region.
Now, you might think that one state’s actions could not possibly affect a global problem like climate change. But if you combine the RGGI states with the five western states that are taking collaborative action, that’s 22 percent of U.S. emissions that could soon be subject to emission targets under a market-based system. If all of these states were a single country, they would be the fourth largest emitting nation in the world. And consider this: California’s emissions exceed those of Brazil. Texas comes out ahead of Canada, the UK and Mexico. And Illinois produces more CO2 than the Netherlands.
States are a significant part of the climate problem, and many of them are showing they can be a significant part of the solution as well.
The states also are showing that it is politically possible to take action on this issue. In November, Governor Richardson was reelected to office with the support of 69 percent of New Mexico voters. It was the largest margin of victory for any governor in the history of the state. Think his support for serious action on climate change hurt him at the polls? Doesn’t look like it.
The same goes for California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Polls have confirmed that his strong support for climate action helped him enormously with California voters in the 2006 election. The governor won the election with a strong 56-percent majority of the vote, vs. 39 percent for his Democratic opponent.
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